Free research / October 20, 2026
Two mining stocks worth a closer look.
Good ideas start with the numbers, not a great story. Here are two real company cases and the checklist I use to question the valuation.
01 / Company research / CTGO
Contango Ore: the cash-flow inflection has a clock.
Contango is interesting because it has producing exposure through the Manh Choh joint venture and is discussing a meaningful production step-up in 2027. That could change how investors value the business. But a short-lived producing asset isn't the same as a long-lived cash-flow machine.
Why I'm watching
A potential shift in scale and cash generation, with existing mining and processing arrangements to examine rather than only an undeveloped resource story.
What I won't ignore
The supported remaining life of Manh Choh, obligations and funding, and how much value future projects add after execution risk and dilution.
The research question: After the 2027 production increase, how much durable value remains for each share? The full intrinsic-value assessment is not yet resolved.
Read the source-linked CTGO deep diveThe case study includes company and partner documents, dated market context and a position disclosure.
02 / Company research / NYSE American: GAU
Galiano Gold: strong mine earnings. How much becomes shareholder cash?
Galiano owns 90% of the Asanko Gold Mine in Ghana. This is a producing business, not a distant discovery thesis. In its August 2026 reporting, management maintained guidance of 140,000 to 160,000 ounces of gold production for the year and all-in sustaining costs of $2,300 to $2,600 per ounce. Those are company guidance figures, not a free-cash-flow forecast. [1]
That cash-flow distinction is the story. Q2 cash generated from operating activities before legal restrictions was $31.9M, but reported cash flow from operating activities was $6.0M. Neither number is automatically the free cash available for shareholders after required capital spending. [1]
Hedges matter too. Q2 realized gold sales averaged $4,432 per ounce before hedging losses, versus $3,853 after those losses. Ghana's sliding-scale royalties also increased reported costs; Q2 AISC was $2,473 per ounce. A simple spot-gold-minus-AISC calculation would miss material parts of the economics. [1]
There is potential durability to investigate: in October, the company reported extensions of two important Asanko mining leases through 2041 and 2043. Those extensions support mine planning, but are not themselves evidence of future reserves or shareholder-level free cash flow. [2]
Why I'm watching
Actual production, meaningful operating earnings, a reported debt-free balance sheet as of June 30, and a mine plan with upside to test.
What I won't ignore
Royalty and geopolitical exposure in Ghana, hedge impacts, capitalized stripping, cash restrictions, reserve life and how much spending the expansion still needs.
The research question: What is the mine worth per fully diluted share after hedges, taxes, capital spending and an appropriately conservative gold-price scenario? Until that is independently modeled against a dated stock price, this is a research idea, not a current buy recommendation.
[1] Galiano Gold, Q2 2026 operating and financial results, Aug. 6, 2026. Production, guidance, hedge differences, royalties and reported operating cash flows.
[2] Galiano Gold, Asanko mining lease extension, Oct. 8, 2026.
[3] Galiano Gold, share structure as of June 30, 2026. Company reports 261,408,764 common shares and 273,841,912 on a fully diluted basis; these must be refreshed before valuation.
03 / Free valuation framework
The 10-question Cash-Flow Checklist.
My first screen isn't a resource estimate or a price target. I ask: Is the mine generating cash? What capital is still needed? Will new shares dilute the upside? How much mine life supports the valuation? What survives if gold stops rising?
The checklist walks through those questions using a simple dilution example. Read it in five minutes and keep it handy when you research another miner.
Read the free checklistWant the next idea?
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Get future research, freeThese are dated research examples, not personal investment advice or buy-at-any-price recommendations. I may own securities discussed. See disclosures for conflicts and limitations.